Bjorn Liungqvist: It is not a famine

Federal Authorities are disappointed with the hype surrounding the current drought that has hit parts of Oromia, Somali and the Southern Nations Nationalities and Peoples Regional State. They are locked in an argument with the international media, claiming that the latter have exaggerated the number of children acutely malnourished due to the drought. Michael Chebud, Fortune Staff Writer, sat down with Country Representative of the UNICEF, Bjorn Ljungqvist, to hear his views on the situation.

Fortune: Following the failure of the Belg rains in Ethiopia, some parts of the country have been affected by drought. Authorities claim that the current situation is not a ‘famine’. What are your views on this?

Bjorn Ljungqvist: They are absolutely right that it is not a famine, judging from what has happened up to now. But at the same time, there is an elevated level of food insecurity because of the drought in the Southern part, and at least partial failure of the Belg rains in other parts of the country. That has made the situation worse than usual. I would also like to emphasize that the increase in food prices, both locally and globally, has also worsened the situation. So if you add up all these factors, you have, in general terms, problems of food insecurity in Ethiopia, which the government, through various programmes, is trying to deal with.

 

So could we consider food insecurity as a definite problem?

Yes, in this particular situation. First, there was drought in the south, in the pastoralist areas. And then there was the failure of the Belg rains, which particularly affected parts of the Southern Nations Nationalities and Peoples Regional State (SNNPR) and western Arsi. What further worsened the situation was an increase in food prices. People who have lost food crops because of this drought have less possibility of buying food to cater for their needs.

International media have reported that six million children are acutely malnourished. To my understanding, the press briefing you gave jointly with government officials on June 3 was intended to scale down the number. Do you believe it exaggerated?

Yes, to some extent because some international media misrepresented what we said. We told them that there are large programmes which are focused on preventing six million children from getting severe malnutrition. So they took this number and said six million children are malnourished and starving to death due to the current drought. They made a wrong analysis there.  What we said earlier is part of the National Nutrition Strategy that needs to be strengthened now. The misunderstanding is they thought that six million children have been affected by the current drought. In that sense, I definitely share the concern of the government that the media reported a very high number. What we talked about in the press briefing was about those who were directly affected from the failure of the Belg rains. It is only 75,000 children that are chronically malnourished directly because of the drought.

 

But a news release you had issued on your web a day before said six million children are in danger of malnutrition and 126,000 children need urgent therapeutic care.

 

Six million children are at risk of malnutrition in Ethiopia at any stage, regardless of the drought. Together with the government, we have estimated that this number of children are most vulnerable, and are at high risk of being acutely malnourished. For these children, we have established an effective programme called Enhanced Outreach Strategy. This is an ongoing one and, in fact, a key component of the national nutrition strategy. So that is what we have on our website. We did not say those six million are directly affected by the drought. But we have those two distinct aspects and with UNICEF, we are trying to strengthen long term programmes (efforts to reduce risk of malnutrition in the country) at the same time responding to urgent needs. We were trying to emphasize all this at the same time and this is what might have caused confusion.

What about the 126,000 children?

 

Our estimate of the number of children who are critically malnourished was 126,000, after using a certain method of estimation. But the government stated that 75,000 children are acutely malnourished after using a different technique. They were actually referring to directly what is taking place on the ground, whereas we extrapolated our figure from sample surveys. We are working on the figures right now.

But you agreed with the government that the estimate is only 75,000.

Yes, it is not too far off. We are coming to about the same estimation when it comes to those children who are directly affected now. That is not a big issue.

If the figures are much lower than what the international media reported, as you say, does it mean that the extent of the problem is not deep?

No, I think it is very deep if you take into consideration the overall situation in those areas which have been directly affected by the drought due to the failure of Belg rains. The treatment centres that we have set up usually had a handful of children there, may be one, or two, or five. Now, all of a sudden, there are 200 to 300 of them. So for me, this really shows that in those areas, many families and children are directly affected in a very serious way. It is not like any other year. In those areas, drought has seriously impacted on children. There is no doubt about that, but there is no famine affecting the whole of Ethiopia, that is the difference.

Which woreda’s are most affected?

In the initial phase, the entire pastoralist area stretching from Somali region across to Borena was affected. That area has almost 2.1 million people who were directly affected and in need of support. That is exactly what we appealed for, together with the government, in April 2008.

The second phase is now a result of the failure of the Belg rains which has affected most parts of Southern nations, Sidama, Wolayta, Hadya and Kembata areas. Eventually, Arsi and Shashemene areas were badly affected. That is when we started to see the impact, even in a few areas in Amhara and Tigray. These cases are being identified right now.

And there are fears that the situation may worsen, impacting on a greater number of children?

The Belg rains are hardly over yet. So it is very difficult to determine the total impact. In fact, under normal conditions, we do what we call post Belg assessment around June. But because the failure of these rains was so large, the impact, especially in the south, has become so apparent. That is why we are rushing and not doing things the way we normally do them.

Why wasn’t the drought detected earlier?

First, the drought occurred in the Southern part over the last six months and we made our first appeal to the international community. But at that stage, the rains came and went. So it was very difficult to say whether there was going to be a crisis or not. The failure in that part has been very serious. It is not only the Belg rains that are important for the people in that particular part of the SNNPR. The rain that watered the root crops and potatoes in October and November was also poor. The Belg failure added to that. That is why we have this extreme problem down there.

International media have been reporting the seriousness of the situation for over a month. But it was only last week that the government came out saying there was this problem, even though it downsized the numbers. Do you think this is timely on the part of the government? Critics say the Disaster Prevention and Preparedness Agency (DPPA) should have made an early warning.

It is a very difficult situation because when most countries say they are afraid things might get bad and they don’t, then they are badly criticized for rushing to ask for food and money all the time when there is no problem.

Ethiopia especially has been accused of making such appeals. So the system that the Ethiopian government has built is fairly systematic. They said, “There is a system that we follow. When we confirm whether it is three million, four million or 4.5 million who have been affected, we will provide the data.” You could argue both ways. I think that it is important to have credibility in order to get the support you need. That has to be weighed against the urgency of the matter. It is important to also remember that even the appeals that were sent out earlier reflecting need in the south have not been effectively responded to by the international community. We have been helping address the problem in the south and in Somali region since October last year. We have used a lot of our buffer stock after undertaking a protracted relief operation all around the south for more than six months, without much international support. The current problem compounded this.

The government has said last week that 4.5 million people need Emergency     food aid. Considering the make up of households in Ethiopia, which are largely dominated by children, how come only 75,000 children are acutely malnourished?

Out of 4.5 million people who have totally lost their livelihood due to the current drought, 750,000 are children under five. From these children, 75,000 are in a critical situation. This is specifically a result of this drought because children in Ethiopia, essentially because of poverty, are facing so many risks. Seasonally, they are better or worse off, but are constantly at the risk of malnutrition for a number of reasons. That is what the development programme of the country is trying to address. That is what the EOS is trying to focus on; to reduce the risk from the general kind of poverty-related threats that the children face. It also includes issues like degradation of land, over population and poverty in slum areas in town. The government is saying these are the issues we need to deal with in a long term national development plan. On top of that, some parts of the country have now been hit by drought. As a result of this, we need extra resources because we did not predict this in the national plan. When we say 4.5 million, it doesn’t mean that these are the only ones affected. Those millions have been identified as needing food aid because there is no way they can manage other wise. But out of them, 75,000 childern have fallen into the category of severe malnutrition and roughly one million families do not have food or money to buy from the market. Although the figure is now 75,000, it will rise over the next couple of weeks. We desperately need to get medicines and supplies.

Do you have any statistics about the number of deaths so far and probable future projections?

If the children don’t get help, they are at a very high risk of dying. I don’t know how many children have not received help. For those who get proper care, the risk of death is very rare. They get professional support in the treatment centers and they recover.  How many children are suffering and not getting treated? We don’t know exactly.  

So you don’t have any figures to give me?

It is hard to get them because in Ethiopia, unfortunately because of the general condition that I described, there are too many children dying anyway. So it is very difficult to identify the cause if they tell you that in a particular village, four children have died. This is happening because of the general poverty. You have to be very careful in stating the number of people who have died due to the current drought. For example, in the 1984 famine, it was estimated that one million children would die over and above the average death. We tried to do that in 2003.  Some people called it famine while others said it was a drought emergency because over 13 million people were affected. There were hardly any additional deaths because of the drought that time. Some children died but others were saved. Through a good response, we were able to limit the number of children dying. It can be done this time as well. The figure that will enable one to say there was a peak at such time and place can only be known in the future.

I know that Ethiopia is known for its high mortality rates. But currently, are there any frequent death reports particularly in drought affected regions?

Not that we have seen so far. It is difficult for Ethiopia because there aren’t agencies like you have in Sweden that compile statistics.

But the government has deployed people in the drought affected regions. How come they don’t know the number of deaths?

They are there to look into the food situation. They are calculating the number of families that need food aid and doing food requirement estimates from the ground, trying to identify from one Woreda to the other. They don’t ask questions about deaths.

Your office said a few weeks ago that you only secured one million dollars from the 50 million that you need to overcome the challenge. Are there additional pledges?

In April, we asked for 30 million dollars. Initially we got very little. Then when we knew that a higher number of children were at risk, so we increased the number to 50 million dollars. Fortunately, I would say there are pledges of at least 10 million dollars. Some donors have said they are prepared to help and money has started to come in. In that sense, I think the media campaign has been successful. People have recognized that there is a problem.

When do you expect to secure the total pledges?

It takes quite a while because some of these aid agencies are bureaucratic. But in the meantime, I can go to my headquarters in New York and say, can I borrow money because I know I will get this much. That is what I have done. I borrowed seven million dollars immediately after I started getting positive responses because I needed to buy plumpy nuts that we have desperately been looking for. The local factories produce like 50 tonnes per month and we need four times that amount. So we have to fly in supplies from New York. Ethiopian Airlines has given us very good support. They promised that our supplies would be flown in at very little cost. I borrowed money and placed an order immediately. We hope the supplies will come in this week.

 

What amount of supplies?

What we are expecting is 98 tonnes per week. That will keep us going as it is more or less what we need each week in order to support those 75,000 children.

Do you share Simon Mechale’s view that the drought  isunder control’ and will end in just three months?     

I would certainly say that Simon knows better than me. Everybody knows that the next harvest will not be ready until October-November this year. If we assume that proper rains will not fall, then the situation will not normalize until November-December. But if the rains start, people will find other ways of getting extra food and fully recover from this situation. It is difficult to generalize but I am sure that the treatment centres will not be empty for at least another month.

But the onset of the rain is also associated with other risks such as diarrhea and malaria. Don’t you expect a formidable challenge from such diseases which, of course, would cause the loss of more children?

The rains, confounded with the drought, would increase certain challenges in some areas as diarrhea affects people. If you have flat lands that have very few water resources, they become more and more contaminated. So in some areas, the number of diarrhea patients would increase when it is dry. In others, the rain would wash all the dirt into the rivers and people drink from them. The children would be at a 25-50pc risk of dying. They would be in a very bad condition. But if we can provide them with the necessary  therapeutic food, virtually all of those children could be saved. If you have a situation where, all of a sudden, 75,000 children come to your treatment centres, of course you have to be able to treat them. That is why we requested help; to avoid this tragedy.

Let me go back to the projections. It has been said that 4.5 million people are directly affected by the current drought. This is more than a 100pc increase from 2.2 million people two months ago. Don’t you worry that this rate might be sustained, considering the number of risks that are yet to come?

The increase from two months ago to now is purely due to the Belg failure. This was mainly in pastoralist areas in the south where Belg rains failed. If the government is saying the rains will stop, they are likely to; they are probably not going to increase. If there are any additional challenges, we don’t know right now.

Some NGOs are claiming that they have been subjected to an elevated amount of duty by the Ethiopian Customs Authority. Is the UNICEF facing such challenges?

No, not UNICEF. We had problems in the beginning because there was a new product for certain medicines and then the government said if it is processed through DPPA or the Ministry of Health, the relief supplies would get tax exemption. That is why you need a good system for NGOs to register and do their job. They have to demonstrate that it is for relief purposes.

Does it mean that there is no problem?

In principle, there isn’t. But I can’t say that there is no problem because obviously, the NGOs wouldn’t have raised the question. I hope that the NGOs concerned and the government work out the modalities so that they are able to bring in the stuff needed.

About a year ago, Ann Veneman, executive director of the UNICEF, said that Ethiopia has progressed towards meeting the MDGs. Is the country sliding back now, in your judgment?

It is not a major slide back. It is, rather, a temporary drawback that we hope will be overcome as quickly as possible.  It is absolutely true that over the last five years, very good progress has been made.

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